|
A success guideline is to spot
big trends early. Consider what happened to investors who got into the seven following
trends at their start…automobiles, petroleum, TV, telephone, airplane, computers
and the internet. Spotting such trends at the beginning is incredibly more important
than understanding cycles, knowing market timing, reading balance sheets, picking
value investments or risk diversification. Now there is a big trend in masses
of alternative investment.
But how do we spot such trends
in the beginning. All the ideas above were resisted. The establishment knew that
"Man could not go faster than the speed of a horse"…and "If God had wanted
man to fly, he would have given us wings". On the invention of TV: The radio industry
knew the idea was a joke.
Alternative Investment Masses
Article
An article in Time magazine by
Lance Morrow entitled "Triumph of the Masses" can help us all understand. This
article reviews the book, "The Wisdom of Crowds, Why the Many are Smarter than
the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies and Societies and
Nations", James Surowiecki. This tells about the masses say about alternative
investment.
Morrow begins by telling how
at the annual West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition in the fall of
1906, a British scientist became interested in a weight judging competition. 800
people, smart, dumb, old, young in all types of professions guessed the weight
of two dressed oxen. The correct answer was 1,197 pounds. The scientist's research
found that the collective estimate was incredibly close, 1,198 pounds.
Alternative Investment Masses
Have a Collective Unconscious
The book suggests that there
is an uncanny and generally unconscious collective intelligence at work. The book
shows how clouds of birds seem to move in one mind but actually are each acting
on their own following four simple rules: #1) Stay as close to the center as possible,
#2) Stay two body lengths away from your neighbor, #3) Do not bump into another
bird and #4: If a predator dives at you get out of the way.
Alternative Investment Masses
are Smart
The book suggests that rather
than crowds being mindless mobs that the many are weirdly smart and effective
even when many of the group are average or below in intelligence or experience.
Alternative Investment Masses
are Effective
A key point that the article
makes is that there is incredible effectiveness in a diversity of individual intelligences
and this is why we are sharing ideas about trends at this site. There are over
3,000 of us reading these messages so perhaps our problem solving ability grows
to the 3000th power.
Next time when you see society,
mankind or the stock market acting in a way that appears to be dumb, ask why?
There may be an intelligence at work that can guide us to the next important trend.
And when you see some group wisdom
at work, please share it with me and I'll make it a point to let all the other
readers know so we can all triumph from the masses by spotting trends.
Gary
P.S. For details on our courses about how to succeed in business that we conduct
at our farm go to GaryScott.com
Gary & Merri Scott have
green investments in their North Carolina Farm (Merrily Farms) and Ecuador Plantation
(Rosaspamba) shown below:
"Merrily Farms in
the Fall"
"Rosaspamba's Virgin
Rain Forest" |
